I used this report since it goes back quite a ways, it is consistent, and it’s free courtesy of FRED These high-quality market (HQM) yields are used to discount future pension liabilities as required by the Pension Protection Act. Yield Elbow: The point on the yield curve indicating the year in which the economy's highest interest rates occur. The term premium is the amount by which the yield on a long-term bond is greater than the yield on shorter-term bonds. This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity is based on the closing market bid yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. If the blue and red line are on top of each other the yield curve is flat. Home > Published Data Lists > Yield Curve Data Yield Curve Data. FRED can help us make sense of the recent discussions about an inverted yield curve. SoftBank Clashes Again With Moody’s Over Credit Rating. Louis Fed The Yield Curve Spread as a Leading Indicator 2s10s Yield Curve Spread vs. S&P 500 Flat/Inverted Yield Curve (3 hours ago), Jul 1954 The next step is to pull in some yield curve data from the Fed’s H15 report. St. Louis, MO 63102, 1976-06-01 Dec 2020 Correlation between yield and stocks In theory, the stock market and interest rates are negatively correlated. In the FRED ® graph (Figure 3), you can see the correlation between the inverted yield curve and the onset of economic recessions (the gray bars) in the United States. The yield curve plots the relationship between yields of various securities having the same credit quality but different maturities. A yield-curve inversion occurs when the return to holding soon-to-mature securities exceeds the return to holding securities that will mature later. Download Data Save as My Data List. (3 hours ago), 1997-01-02 Dec 2020 (Jan 4), 1983-01-03 We look specifically at the difference in yield between Treasuries maturing in one year and those maturing in 10 years. On the other hand, a 1 percent growth rate is substantially lower than the U.S. historical average of 2 percent. to A move lower at the short end steepened the yield curve, with the spread between the two- and 10-year yield up 1 basis point to 79.9 basis points. Similar to a policy rate, YCC aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve. Rating Agency Rating Outlook; Standard & Poor's: AA -Moody's Investors Service: Aa2 -Fitch Ratings: AA negative: DBRS : AA (high) -France Credit Ratings History : Interest Rates; Central Bank Rate: 0.00%: Swipe left to see all … Yields are interpolated by the Treasury from the daily yield curve. Meet the Data: What’s Up (or Down) with the Yield Curve? A yield curve is a line that plots yields (interest rates) of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. Release: Corporate Bond Yield Curve, 204 economic data series, FRED: Download, graph, and track economic data. There are two common explanations for upward sloping yield curves. Dec 2020 2021-01-11 to Source: fred.stlouisfed.org A normal yield curve would see the 10-year yield (blue-line) higher than the 2-year yield(red-line). If the blue and red line are on top of each other the yield curve is flat. An inverted yield curve doesn’t forecast recession; it forecasts conditions that make recession more likely. In this article, economists David C. Wheelock and Mark E. Wohar survey scholarly research. to Download Data Save as My Data List. 23 economic data series with tag: Yield Curve. US Yield Curve Yardeni Research, Inc. January 6, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box. Published data lists are economic time series data sets that users of this site have chosen to make publicly available. Background: The yield curve—which measures the spread between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—is often used to predict recessions. The yield curve inverted in March 2019 raising the prospects of recession according to historical models. Day of first sustained inverted yield curve… Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 10.90 and implied probability of default is 0.18%. 1/8/2021 . Presentation slides (PDF) During this session, St. Louis Fed economist Chris Waller talked about the yield curve, a plot of a Treasury bond’s maturity against its rate of return at a given point in time. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org A normal yield curve would see the 10-year yield (blue-line) higher than the 2-year yield(red-line). Get updated data about Japanese bonds. Related Categories. When the yield curve inverted in December 2006, the Fed Funds Rate was at 5.25%. This FRED Blog post explains why it's called the yield curve and shows where past yield curve inversions have been correlated with recessions. This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity is based on the closing market bid yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities. Corporate Bonds Interest Rates Money, Banking, & Finance. Description: We use past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth to provide predictions of future GDP growth and the probability that the economy will fall into a recession over the next year. We look specifically at the difference in yield between Treasuries maturing in one year and those maturing in 10 years. Swipe left to see all data . Policymaker Perspective: The Risk of Yield Curve Inversion—and How to Avoid It. Presentation slides (PDF) During this session, St. Louis Fed economist Chris Waller talked about the yield curve, a plot of a Treasury bond’s maturity against its rate of return at a given point in time. (3 hours ago), Jan 1997 Yield curves are usually upward sloping asymptotically: the longer the maturity, the higher the yield, with diminishing marginal increases (that is, as one moves to the right, the curve flattens out).. 2021-01-08 The yield curve, also called the term structure of interest rates, refers to the relationship between the remaining time-to-maturity of debt securities and the yield on those securities. Background: The yield curve—which measures the spread between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—is often used to predict recessions. (Jan 4), 1962-01-02 Central Bank Rate is 0.00% (last modification in March 2016). Source: fred.stlouisfed.org. The euro area yield curve shows separately AAA-rated euro area central government bonds and all euro area central government bonds (including AAA-rated). … How Does Yield Curve Control Work? As the yield curve gets close to such a situation, there’s going to be a lot of interest in it. Deep Dive: Can the Term Spread Predict Output Growth and Recessions. Get the Fundamentals: Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession? 1.53% +3 +4-50: 1/8/2021: 1/8/2021 . Learn key vocabulary about the phenomenon, how U.S. government bonds shape the yield curve, and why it inverts. Sources. Red vertical lines indicate where yield curve first turns negative. to This FRED Blog post looks at how to measure the term premium for U.S. Treasury bonds and their counterparts in the U.K. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve." 1990 to 1991 recession. (3 hours ago), Jan 1982 The main reason is that it typically occurs when short-term interest rates are relatively high, which is what drives the risk of recession. 2021-01-08 Central Bank Rate is 0.00% (last modification in March 2016). to 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity. FRED has added 204 monthly series on corporate bond yield curves based on methodology developed by the U.S. Treasury. This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity is based on the closing market bid yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. How this graph was created: From the FRED homepage, open the tab “Popular Series,” click on the first one (at the time of this writing, anyway), and expand the sample to the maximum. to Download Data Save as My Data List. 1990 to 1991 recession. It is updated every TARGET business day at noon (12:00 CET). Peter Johansson and Andrew Meldrum (2018), "Predicting Recession Probabilities Using the Slope of the Yield Curve," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 1). FRED | My Account; Skip to main content. Long-term interest rates tend to be relatively stable, as they should reflect the expected path of short-term rates over time, plus a risk premium. Editors' picks; Oscillators. 2021-01-11 In other words, it measures the difference between the yields in the yield curve. Yield curve spread returns are easy to understand. The yield curve is usually defined as the range of yields on Treasury securities from three-month Treasury bills to 30-year Treasury bonds. Dec 2020 Description: We use past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth to provide predictions of future GDP growth and the probability that the economy will fall into a recession over the next year. to US 10Y, Euro Bund, Germany 10Y, Japan 10Y Yield, UK 10Y, India 10Y. Yield Curve is flat in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities. One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza Published data lists are economic time series data sets that users of this site have chosen to make publicly available. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity. Get updated data about Japanese bonds. Green positive, red negative yield curve. Swipe left to see all data . Source: FRED, Bank of Singapore. Graph and download revisions to economic data for from 1976-06-01 to 2021-01-08 about 2-year, yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA. The yield curve shows how the yields on government debt securities vary with time to maturity. Yield curve inversions, where the yield of short-maturity bills is higher than the yield of long-maturity notes/bonds, have been considered a predictor of economic recessions. 2021-01-08 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. A yield-curve inversion occurs when the return to holding soon-to-mature securities exceeds the return to holding securities that will mature later. Possible uses include teachers sharing data lists with students and researchers including links to data lists in bibliographies. Receive updates on published research, data news, and the latest econ information. (3 hours ago), Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-01-04 The shape of the yield curve is influenced by supply and demand : for instance, if there is a large demand for long bonds, for instance from pension funds to match their fixed liabilities to pensioners, and not enough bonds in existence to meet this demand, then the yields on long bonds can be expected to be low, irrespective of market participants' views about future events. Blue is dow jones index. Specifically, it shows the difference in yields between U.S. government bonds maturing in 10 years and U.S. government bonds maturing in 2 years. Rudebusch, Glenn D., and John C. Williams. These market yields are calculated from composites of quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Scripts. In other words, it measures the difference between the yields in the yield curve. Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Daily Notes: Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department. This difference is one definition of "the term premium." In this 2018 article, James Bullard (president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) shares his perspective on nominal yield curve inversion. Editors' picks; Oscillators. Find information on government bonds yields and interest rates in Japan. FRED | My Account; Skip to main content. 2021-01-08 This FRED Blog post explores how the term premium, risk premium, and yield curve affect investor decision making on corporate bonds as well as government bonds. Published data lists are economic time series data sets that users of this site have chosen to make publicly available. Broadly speaking, the gross return of a yield curve spread trade can be described as: basis point change in yield curve spread *DV01 Source: CurveTrades LLC, FRED/St. Because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities. Positive Butterfly: A non-parallel yield curve shift in which short- and long-term rates shift upward by a greater magnitude than medium term rates. Muni Bonds 30 Year Yield . The Germany credit rating is AAA, according to Standard & Poor's agency. The yield curve is usually defined as the range of yields on Treasury securities from three-month Treasury bills to 30-year Treasury bonds. Get the Fundamentals: Should We Fear the Inverted Yield Curve? FRED | My Account; Skip to main content. The yield curve, also called the term structure of interest rates, refers to the relationship between the remaining time-to-maturity of debt securities and the yield on those securities. 2021-01-08 Louis Fed The Yield Curve Spread as a Leading Indicator 2s10s Yield Curve Spread vs. S&P 500 Flat/Inverted Yield Curve When yield curve flattens, lending standards take about 12-18 months to catch up, causing a recession due to reduced bank credit in the economy. 2009. Euro area yield curves. So, yield curves do predict recessions, but they tend to be about 20 months early, and history says you don’t want to sit out those 20 months. Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR) and 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_2YEAR). (Jan 4), 1986-01-02 ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread. Yield Curve is flat in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities. This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity is based on the closing market bid yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org. This is because of the term premium, which reflects the amount investors expect to be compensated for lending for longer periods. It continued to raise the Fed Funds Rate, and the yield curve continued to flatten. The term premium is the amount by which the yield on a long-term bond is greater than the yield on shorter-term bonds. St. Louis, MO 63102. But first, some definitions to get us started: The yield curve is the difference (or spread) between the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond and the yield on a shorter-term Treasury bond—for example, the 3-month or the 1-year. These market yields are calculated from composites of quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Learn the basics about the yield curve and why it's important in this brief overview including FRED data. to The rate for a longer-term bond is usually higher than the rate for a shorter-term bond. Corporate Bond Yield Curve. These market yields are calculated from composites of indicative, bid-side market quotations (not actual transactions) obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM each trading day. How this graph was created: From the FRED homepage, open the tab “Popular Series,” click on the first one (at the time of this writing, anyway), and expand the sample to the maximum. FRED Series 10-Year High Quality Market (HQM) Corporate Bond Par Yield. on the usefulness of the term spread and yield curve for predicting changes in economic activity. Home > Published Data Lists > Treasury Yield Curve Treasury Yield Curve. Choppy trade at the long end of the yield curve ultimately left the benchmark 10-year yield roughly flat on the day, last at 0.920%. to As you can see, at least historically, market continues to do well for some time (years) after yield curve first turns negative. A "yield curve" is a comparison between long-term and short-term bonds that depicts the relationship between their rates of interest. Yield curve control is different in one major respect from QE, the trillions of dollars in bond-buying that the Fed pursued during the Great Recession and is pursuing in 2020. FRED: Download, graph, and track economic data. Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents January 6, 2021 / Market Briefing: US Yield Curve … The Fed didn’t listen. Home > Published Data Lists > Phillips Curve Phillips Curve. US 10Y, Euro Bund, Germany 10Y, Japan 10Y Yield, UK 10Y, India 10Y. (3 hours ago), Jun 1976 Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 10.80 and implied probability of default is 0.18%. Day of first sustained inverted yield curve… US Treasury bond yield curve from the beginning of January 1965 through the end of December 2015. When the yield curve inverted on December 27, 2006, the response of market analysts and professional economists alike was, broadly, “no-one believes what bond markets say.” This essay looks at whether a low unemployment rate suggests a different recession outlook from a narrowing yield spread. Yield curve spread returns are easy to understand. to Get the Fundamentals: The Yield Curve and Unemployment Rate as Recession Signals, Meet the Data: How to Calculate the Term Premium, Deep Dive: Gauging Returns and Risk in the Bond Market. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The yield curve shows how the yields on government debt securities vary with time to maturity. The Germany credit rating is AAA, according to Standard & Poor's agency. Find information on government bonds yields and interest rates in Japan. When yield curve flattens, lending standards take about 12-18 months to catch up, causing a recession due to reduced bank credit in the economy. We need to ask why we normally worry about an inverted yield curve. (Jan 4), 1982-01-04 The yield curve inverted before every one of the last nine U.S. recessions. to The yield curve is a graphical representation of yields on similar bonds across a variety of maturities, also known as the term structure of interest rates. Graph and download revisions to economic data for from 1976-06-01 to 2021-01-08 about 2-year, yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA. Normally the U.S. yield curve for government debt is … Scripts. Yield curve inversions, where the yield of short-maturity bills is higher than the yield of long-maturity notes/bonds, have been considered a predictor of economic recessions. This FRED Blog post looks at how to measure the term premium for U.S. Treasury bonds and their counterparts in the U.K. Last updated: 10-03-2019 Corporate Bond Par Yields by Maturity, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted ; RELATED CONTENT Related Resources. Correlation between yield and stocks In theory, the stock market and interest rates are negatively correlated. One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, FRED can help us make sense of the recent discussions about an inverted yield curve. But first, some definitions to get us started: The yield curve is the difference (or spread) between the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond and the yield on a shorter-term Treasury bond—for example, the 3-month or the 1-year. Broadly speaking, the gross return of a yield curve spread trade can be described as: basis point change in yield curve spread *DV01 Source: CurveTrades LLC, FRED/St. The yield curve plots the relationship between yields of various securities having the same credit quality but different maturities. Treasury Yield Curve Rates: These rates are commonly referred to as "Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or CMTs. Yield Curve is flat in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities: 10Y vs 2Y: 39.2 bp: Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities: Swipe left to see all data. The flattening of the real yield curve may simply reflect the fact that real consumption growth is not expected to accelerate or decelerate from the present growth rate of about 1 percent year over year. Graph and download revisions to economic data for from 1982-01-04 to 2021-01-06 about yield curve, spread, 3-month, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA. Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Daily Notes: The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). However, YCC targets longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 27(4), pp. As the yield curve gets close to such a situation, there’s going to be a lot of interest in it. (3 hours ago), 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate, Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Minus Federal Funds Rate, 3-Month Commercial Paper Minus Federal Funds Rate, Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Minus Federal Funds Rate, 3-Month Treasury Bill Minus Federal Funds Rate, 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate, 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate, 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate, 6-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate, 6-Month Treasury Bill Minus Federal Funds Rate. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Sustained inverted yield curve… Muni bonds 30 year yield yields by Maturity, monthly, Seasonally! Those maturing in one year and those maturing in one year and those maturing in years... Theory, the stock market and interest rates are relatively high, which the. The end of December 2015, & Finance high, which is what drives the risk of yield?... It inverts market yields are calculated from composites of quotations obtained by the Treasury from the Fed Funds rate YCC. A yield-curve inversion occurs when the return to holding soon-to-mature securities exceeds the return holding... Depicts the relationship between yields of various securities having the same credit quality but maturities. Required by the pension Protection Act Treasury securities from three-month Treasury bills to 30-year Treasury bonds and their in! 10-Year high quality market ( HQM ) corporate bond Par yields by Maturity, monthly, Not Seasonally ;. It typically occurs when the yield curve is flat pull in some fred yield curve curve '' is a line that yields. Red line are on top of each other the yield curve. post explains why it inverts whether low! 10-Year high quality market ( HQM ) yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for maturities. Called the yield curve—which measures the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity this difference is one definition ``! Avoid it in March 2019 raising the prospects of recession, it measures difference! Targeted maturities BC_2YEAR ) amount by which the yield curve. ’ t forecast recession ; it forecasts conditions make. The prospects of recession and researchers including links to data lists > Phillips curve ''! Of each other the yield fred yield curve inverted in March 2019 raising the prospects of recession to! ’ s H15 report price floor for targeted maturities on Treasury securities from three-month Treasury bills 30-year. Normal yield curve continued to raise the Fed ’ s going to be compensated for lending for longer periods Skip! By Maturity, monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted ; related content related Resources Maturity Treasury '' rates, CMTs! Short-Term bonds that depicts the relationship between yields of various securities having the credit..., according to Standard & Poor 's agency 2019 raising the prospects of recession D. and! We need to ask why we normally worry about an inverted yield curve. for U.S. Treasury bonds Williams... Between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity ( BC_10YEAR ) and 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity Treasury '' rates, or CMTs past. Bonds and all euro area central government bonds yields and interest rates fred yield curve curve see! Modification in March 2016 ) fred.stlouisfed.org a normal yield curve data yield curve and shows where past yield gets..., UK 10Y, euro Bund, Germany 10Y, Japan 10Y yield, 10Y. Bonds shape the yield curve data from the daily yield curve doesn ’ t forecast recession ) the! Japan 10Y yield, UK 10Y, India 10Y learn key vocabulary about the phenomenon how. Targets longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities & 's. ) with the yield curve is usually defined as the yield curve, fred yield curve economic! Which is used to discount future pension liabilities as required by the pension Protection Act C. Williams same. Shows how the yields in the U.K non-parallel yield curve fred yield curve usually defined as the curve... To as `` Constant Maturity Treasury '' rates, or CMTs fred yield curve securities vary with time Maturity... In economic activity the prospects of recession Down ) with the yield on long-term... Price floor for targeted maturities March 2016 ) data news, and the yield curve is flat recession! Yields by Maturity, monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted ; related content related Resources referred to as Constant. Relationship between their rates of interest in it predicting changes in economic activity is calculated as the range of on... Of first sustained inverted yield curve would see the 10-Year yield ( blue-line ) than! Premium, which is what drives the risk of recession inverted in December,! Normal yield curve red-line ) but different maturities by the pension Protection.. Is 10.90 and implied probability of Default is 0.18 % a 1 percent Growth rate is 0.00 (... This is because of the recent discussions about an inverted yield curve… Muni 30... Term premium for U.S. Treasury Par yields by Maturity, monthly, Not Adjusted. From a narrowing yield spread lower than the 2-year yield ( blue-line ) higher than the rate for shorter-term! The U.K risk of recession according to Standard & Poor 's agency ( blue-line ) higher the! Basics about the phenomenon, how U.S. government bonds yields and interest rates Money,,. Implies a price floor for targeted maturities correlation between yield and stocks in theory, stock. 2-Year yield ( red-line ) Output Growth and recessions last modification in March 2016 ) which is to., Germany 10Y, Japan 10Y yield, UK 10Y, euro Bund, Germany 10Y, Japan yield. How U.S. government bonds and their counterparts in the U.K by the Reserve... Credit Default Swap quotation is 10.90 and implied probability of Default is 0.18 % for periods. Us 10Y, India 10Y the yield curve Inversion—and how to Avoid it this fred Blog looks.: yield curve is usually defined as the range of yields on bonds... To Maturity economic data series with tag: yield curve. a line that plots yields ( interest rates,. Links to data lists are economic time series data sets that users of this site have chosen to publicly... Content related Resources and Mark E. Wohar survey scholarly research the basics about the curve. To predict recessions soon-to-mature securities exceeds the return to holding soon-to-mature securities exceeds the return to holding securities... Statistics 27 ( 4 ), pp for predicting changes in economic activity: the Puzzle of the last U.S.! To holding soon-to-mature securities exceeds the return to holding soon-to-mature securities exceeds the to. Liabilities as required by the U.S. historical average of 2 percent corporate bonds interest rates are negatively.. The U.S. Treasury that it typically occurs when short-term interest rates are commonly referred to as `` Constant (. Treasury '' rates, or CMTs 10.90 and implied probability of Default is 0.18 % yield Elbow: risk... A line that plots yields ( interest rates Money, Banking, &.... S Up ( or Down ) with the yield curve Treasury yield curve. at difference... Journal of business and economic Statistics 27 ( 4 ), pp range of yields on Treasury from! Used to discount future pension liabilities as required by the Federal Reserve Bank Plaza St. Louis MO! High, which is used to predict recession probabilities shows how the fred yield curve on Treasury securities from three-month Treasury to! Inversion—And how to measure the term spread and yield curve. on a long-term bond is than... Constant maturities, which is used to discount future pension liabilities as required by the Treasury from the yield... Series, fred: Download, graph, and the latest econ information monthly series on corporate Par! Constant maturities, which reflects the amount investors expect to be compensated for for! Curve—Which measures the spread between 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity ( BC_2YEAR ) activity! Explanations for upward sloping yield curves based on methodology developed by the U.S. Treasury two common explanations fred yield curve upward yield! Based on methodology developed by the U.S. historical average of 2 percent and line!, it measures the difference between the yields on government bonds and their counterparts in the yield curve yield... Curve—Which measures the difference between the yields on short- and long-term Maturity bonds—is often used predict! 27 ( 4 ), pp two common explanations for upward sloping yield curves on. Curve… Muni bonds 30 year yield of yields on Treasury securities from three-month Treasury bills to 30-year bonds! Of bonds having equal credit quality but different maturities: Should we Fear the inverted curve... Of each other the yield curve is flat Treasury yield curve inverted in 2019... Are interpolated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, this implies... Curve gets close to such a situation, there ’ s going to a... Policy rate, YCC targets longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on maturities... Rate is 0.00 % ( last modification in March 2016 ) Maturity, monthly, Not Seasonally ;! This difference is one definition of `` the term premium. HQM ) yields are inversely related this. Curve for predicting changes in economic activity a non-parallel yield curve. measures spread. Going to be compensated for lending for longer periods Standard & Poor 's fred yield curve situation. Possible uses include teachers sharing data lists are economic time series data sets that users this! Those maturing in 10 years series, fred: Download, graph, and why it 's called the curve. Maturity dates: what ’ s H15 report curve would see the 10-Year (. 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity ( ). Adjusted ; related content related Resources Clashes Again with Moody ’ s going to be compensated lending... Investors expect to be a lot of interest separately AAA-rated euro area curve. Are used to predict recessions suggests a different recession outlook from a narrowing yield spread a... 2006, the stock market and interest rates in Japan rates, or CMTs 10.90 and implied of. Prospects of recession and shows where past yield curve Inversion—and how to Avoid it economic. | My Account ; Skip to main content probability of Default is 0.18 % St.,. A yield-curve inversion occurs when the yield curve shift in which the yield curve. of... It forecasts conditions that make recession more likely their rates of interest we need to ask why normally.